Americans Leaving the US in 2026: Who's Going, Where, and Why — The Data

What the data actually shows — and what it doesn't

Every election cycle produces a wave of 'Americans are fleeing the country' stories. Some of the data is real and striking; some of the most-shared figures don't survive a close look. Here's the honest picture for 2026, with sources you can check.

Start with the headline question — how many Americans live abroad? You'll see '9 million' everywhere. That was a US State Department estimate from 2016, and the Department has since stopped publishing it, citing the difficulty of getting reliable data. Independent estimates now cluster lower, between about 4.4 million (the Federal Voting Assistance Program's 2022 analysis) and 5.5 million (AARO, 2024). There is no authoritative count — the US Census doesn't track citizens overseas — so treat any single number as an estimate.

Is a record number of Americans really leaving?

The interest is unmistakable, even if the hard emigration counts are fuzzy. The strongest survey evidence comes from Gallup: in 2024 a record 21% of Americans said they'd like to move abroad permanently, up from 17% in 2023 and roughly double the Bush/Obama-era rate. Among women aged 15–44, that figure reached 40% in 2025 — about four times the 2014 level.

Other signals point the same direction but prove less than they appear. US passport issuance hit a record — over 27 million books and cards in fiscal 2025 — but that reflects a post-COVID travel rebound and more Americans holding passports, not proof of emigration. Google searches for 'how to move to Canada' spiked roughly 400% on election night in November 2024, but Google Trends measures relative interest, not people actually packing, and the spike faded within weeks.

One widely-shared 2026 claim — that about 180,000 US citizens emigrated in 2025 — comes from Global Citizen Solutions, a firm that sells relocation services, so it carries an interest bias; treat it as an industry estimate, not a government count. And the genuinely authoritative 'net migration turned negative in 2025 for the first time in 50+ years' figure (Brookings) is about collapsing immigrant inflows under tighter enforcement — not Americans leaving. It's the most misread statistic in this whole conversation.

The hardest number: citizenship renunciations

If you want a government-grade measure of Americans formally cutting ties, it's the IRS's quarterly Federal Register list of citizens who renounce. The trend is real: from a baseline of a few hundred per year before 2009, renunciations rose roughly tenfold, hitting an all-time record of 6,705 in 2020 and running near 5,000 in 2024 (up about 48% over 2023).

Two honest caveats. First, renouncing citizenship is a far bigger, rarer step than simply moving abroad — at ~5,000–7,000 a year it's a tiny fraction of the millions living overseas. Second, the biggest driver isn't politics; it's the tax and banking burden FATCA places on Americans abroad, who must keep filing US returns no matter where they live.

Why Americans are leaving — the four real drivers

When you ask people who are actually considering it, the same forces come up — and several are backed by hard numbers:

• Politics. In a LendingTree survey after the 2024 election, 48% of would-be movers said the political climate makes them want to leave, and 41% said the results made a move more likely — though most 'movers' meant another US state, not another country.
• Healthcare costs. The US spent $14,775 per person on health care in 2024 — nearly double the $7,860 peer-country average (Peterson-KFF). For many, healthcare abroad is the single biggest line item that makes a move pencil out.
• Cost of living and housing. Rent and home prices are a top cited reason, and many destinations run 30–50% cheaper than a comparable US metro.
• Remote work and retirement. Over 70 countries now offer digital-nomad visas, and Social Security is payable in nearly every country — together making location-independent work and affordable retirement abroad realistic for the first time.

Where Americans are actually going — the top destinations by the numbers

These are the largest established American populations, drawn from each country's own census or immigration register (so they're 'US-born' or 'US-citizen' counts, not estimates). The numbers are smaller than the breathless claims — but they're real:

• Mexico — the #1 destination by far: ~797,266 US-born residents (INEGI 2020 census). The popular '1.5 million+' is a State Department estimate.
• Canada — ~256,000 US-born residents (Statistics Canada, 2021), roughly flat for decades.
• United Kingdom — ~203,000 US-born in England & Wales (ONS, 2021 census), up ~15% over 2011.
• Germany — 118,130 registered US citizens (Destatis, 2025) — a clean citizenship-register figure.
• Australia — ~101,309 US-born (ABS, 2021 census).
• Spain — ~68,000 American residents in 2024, up roughly 90% since 2010 (INE).
• Costa Rica — estimated 50,000–120,000 US citizens (State Department / media estimates; no official census breakout).

The fastest-growing destination: Portugal

If there's one breakout story, it's Portugal. The American resident population went from 2,888 in 2017 to about 14,126 by 2023 — and higher still since — according to SEF/AIMA (Portugal's immigration authority) figures. That's roughly a 5× surge in six years, the steepest growth of any major destination, powered by the D7 and D8 visas, strong healthcare, and (until recently) tax incentives.

But 2025 changed Portugal's math, which brings us to the rules every prospective mover now has to navigate.

What changed in 2025–2026 that movers need to know

Several of the most-used routes shifted in the last 18 months. If you're working off older advice, update it:

• Spain ended its Golden Visa. The €500,000 property-investment residence permit was abolished effective April 3, 2025 (Organic Law 1/2025).
• Portugal closed the real-estate route to its Golden Visa (October 2023); fund, donation, and other routes remain.
• Portugal replaced its NHR tax break with a narrower 'IFICI' regime from January 1, 2025 — most American retirees and remote workers will NOT qualify, a meaningful negative change.
• The EU's Entry/Exit System (EES) began rolling out October 12, 2025 and is set to be fully operational April 10, 2026 — biometric registration replaces passport stamps for Americans entering the Schengen area.
• ETIAS, a €20 pre-travel authorization for visa-free visitors, is expected in late 2026 (dates have repeatedly slipped). It's an authorization, not a visa.

Which destination fits which kind of American

The 'best' country depends entirely on who you are. A rough map, each linking to our full country breakdown:

• Retirees on Social Security/pension → Mexico (closest, cheap healthcare), Portugal (D7), Panama (Pensionado), or Costa Rica.
• Remote workers and freelancers → digital-nomad visas in Portugal, Spain, or lower-cost Mexico and Colombia.
• Budget-first movers → Mexico, Colombia, or Thailand, where dollars stretch 30–50% further.
• Europe-at-any-cost → Portugal or Spain for healthcare and lifestyle, accepting longer flights and worldwide-income taxation.

How to actually start planning your move

Curiosity is cheap; a plan is what moves the needle. The sequence that works: pick 2–3 destinations that fit your income and goals, confirm the specific visa you'd qualify for (and its income threshold), model your US taxes (you keep filing — the FEIE or Foreign Tax Credit usually erases the bill), price out healthcare, and visit before you commit.

That's exactly what a Plan B Blueprint does for your situation — your eligible visa, US-tax outlook, a real-dollar budget, and a step-by-step timeline, researched and cited. It turns 'I've thought about leaving' into a plan you can actually act on.

The honest takeaway

Are record numbers of Americans leaving? More are seriously considering it than at any point Gallup has measured, renunciations sit near record highs, and destinations like Portugal have grown several-fold. But the totals are smaller, and the data messier, than the viral headlines suggest. The interesting story isn't a stampede — it's that for the first time, leaving has become genuinely practical for millions of ordinary Americans, not just the wealthy. Whether it's right for you is a question of numbers, not vibes — so run yours.